Thursday, September 3, 2009

Oh, Conspiracy Theorists Unite

Saturday marks the 200-day anniversary of the Obama/Biden/Pelosi/Reid Stimulus and the country continues to bleed jobs. We've received two data points so far this week--Challenger report on Wednesday and the jobless claims from this morning. Tomorrow is the big day with the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report.

Wall Street consensus is saying we should see a loss of 225,000 jobs in August. And, as you know, this number would be great considering we had a -790,000 print back in March. But, here's where we get cynical:

It's Labor Day weekend and this Administration would like nothing less than showing a figure below 200,000. Not to mention the healthcare conversations will be in high gear next week, and O'B needs to show a quick reversal in job losses if he thinks he's going to get anything passed in terms of "real" reform.

But, the numbers don't lie and it's hard to believe tomorrow's number will be great. Here's the thing, though: If they are decent, the revision (released next month) can change showing more job losses--and nobody will give a hoot. If you are in the Labor Dept. right now and hear the following: "Paging Rahm Emanuel", then you'll know what I'm talking about!

Take a look at the following article I just sent to my friends at Taipan Publishing. It's just a thought, and nothing more than that. But, tomorrow at 8:30am NYT, be prepared for some entertaining Labor Day fireworks!

Talk to you,

Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
LandColt Trading, Inc.

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