Love how everyone is putting lipstick on the pig following this morning's beat on the retail print. Consensus was expecting retail sales to jump 0.9% in October, but the figure came in at a robust 1.4%. Looks good, right?!? Well, to utter a line from Lee Corso: "Not so fast, my friends."
The September revision came in at -1.5%. Why is this a big deal? Because Labor Day was late this year--actually a full week into September and back-to-school shopping was still taking place. Even with the full week of BTS shopping, the (revised) figure came in at a horrible rate. Always remember--back-to-school shopping is an excellent way to forecast how consumers will spending for the holidays. Ho Ho Ho is not looking good right now.
But, back to October--the headline looked great at +1.4%...but the damn ex-autos print came in a benign +0.2%. Consensus was looking for +0.4%. How much of the 0.2% was just from Halloween?!?
Folks--I'm trying to be optimistic, but walk around a mall. How many people are holding shopping bags?? Not many from what I have seen.
Futures are turning and volatility rules. Strap yourselves in!
Talk to you,
Todd M. Schoenberger, Managing Director
LandColt Trading, LLC