Thursday, November 5, 2009

Yankees Win! Yankees Win!

Getting started late after a late night of partying following the Yankees' 27th World Championship. It was a great year for the Yanks and--hats off--to the Phillies. They fought hard, played well, and hung tough--but ultimately, the better team took the title.

BTW, did you see Mary J. Blige sing the National Anthem?? If that didn't give you goosebumps, then check your pulse! She did great.

Now, on to the biz of the day. So far this morning, we received unit labor costs, productivity, and jobless claims. Productivity jumped 9.5%; labor costs dropped 5.2% and claims still came in over 500,000.

What does this mean? It means that people are working harder and companies aren't hiring people to help their current work force with workloads. Surprisingly, everyone seems to think this is good news, or at least some of the knuckleheads I saw on the teevee this morning.

There is one data point that is still disturbing and that's the 500,000+ on first time jobless claims. How the hell is this economy going to turn around if 1) companies don't hire (as shown in the unit labor cost figure) and 2) people continue to be out of work and filing for unemployment benefits?!?

LandColt Trading is forecasting the unemployment rate to jump above 10% tomorrow. Consensus is calling for a 9.9% print; the rate came in at 9.8% last month. Our prognostication is for 10.1%. And here's why:

Pick any day of the week and key in 'layoffs' into Google and see how many daily announcements are made. It is disturbing and frightening!

More later including the press release about today's appearance on the Neil Cavuto show.

Talk to you,

Todd M. Schoenberger
Managing Director
LandColt Trading, LLC

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